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FACTBOX-Political risks to watch in Uganda

by Reuters
Friday, 14 September 2012 15:33 GMT

By Elias Biryabarema

KAMPALA, Sep 14 (Reuters) - Uganda has denied supporting rebels fighting in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo after the U.N. Security Council rebuked unnamed countries it said had offered the M23 group assistance.

Under pressure from the West to cut links to the M23 insurgency in the east of DRC, Uganda and Rwanda publicly say they want a regional force to tackle the rebels. However, regional powers are deadlocked on the force's make-up.

Following are political risks to watch in Uganda.

M23 REBELS

Although regional states have agreed to a 4,000-strong force to try to neutralise the M23 rebels, Western diplomatic sources are sceptical the force will get off the ground.

No progress was made on the force's composition or financing at a heads of state meeting this month in the Ugandan capital, Kampala. Rwandan President Paul Kagame was a no-show.

The U.N. rebuke, which diplomats said was aimed at Rwanda and Uganda could foreshadow a downturn in relations between Kampala and its donors who have already punished Rwanda by suspending aid for its alleged links with the M23 rebels.

PROTESTS

Plans for a resumption of anti-government street protests have faltered amid a fall in some food prices and a reluctance by opposition activists to confront the police after last year's harsh crackdown.

However, Uganda's main opposition leader, Kizza Besigye, is still keen to galvanise popular dissatisfaction over the high cost of living and corruption to topple his veteran foe President Yoweri Museveni.

ANTI-GAY LEGISLATION

A bill calling for harsh penalties against homosexuals has been reintroduced in parliament by a legislator from the ruling NRM party.

Passage of any draconian anti-gay legislation could prompt some international donors to cut aid, which accounts for a quarter of the current financial year's budget.

OIL REFINERY DISAGREEMENT

A dispute has emerged between UK explorer Tullow Oil and the Ugandan government over the size of a planned refinery, threatening to delay commencement of production for the country's emerging petroleum industry.

Failure to agree on the refinery and slow progress in enacting long-awaited oil laws is likely to delay development of key oil production infrastructure for a country hungry for oil revenues to scale up public expenditure and boost service delivery.

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, TENSIONS

Uganda has said it would back its northern neighbour South Sudan (SS) if it got sucked into a war with its long-time foe Sudan. However, a war in SS, a lucrative market for Uganda's exports, could hurt the economy.

Museveni's hitherto warm relations with Washington could also suffer a chill over his reluctance to cede power after U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, said she had told the long-serving leader in a recent visit to consider his "legacy". (Editing by Richard Lough and Andrew Osborn)

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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