By James Macharia
NAIROBI, April 8 (Reuters) - Kenya's broadly peaceful elections and the Supreme Court process that confirmed Uhuru Kenyatta's win have strengthened the reputation of east Africa's biggest economy by avoiding the violence that erupted after the last election in 2007.
However, Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto have been indicted for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC), raising questions about relations with Kenya's international partners. Ruto's trial starts on May 28 and Kenyatta's on July 9.
ICC TRIALS
Kenyatta, 51, is Kenya's richest man and the son of its founding president, Jomo Kenyatta. He is to be tried in The Hague on charges of playing a leading role in the wave of deadly tribal killings that followed the disputed 2007 election.
Both Kenyatta and Ruto, who faces similar charges, reject the accusations and have said they will cooperate with the court and attend their trials.
How Western capitals deal with Kenya under the U.S.-educated Kenyatta and his government will depend on whether he and Ruto work with the tribunal. Kenya is a key ally in the struggle with militant Islam in the region and has deep economic ties with Britain and the European Union.
What to watch:
- Will the West be able to keep Kenyatta and Ruto personally at arm's length while preserving security and business ties?
- Will they risk not dealing with Kenyatta and push east Africa's economic linchpin closer to China?
- The ICC prosecutor has withdrawn charges against one of Kenyatta's co-accused for lack of evidence. Some witnesses in Kenyatta's case are reported to have declined to testify against him. Will Kenyatta and Ruto's cases collapse?
- Lengthy trials for both could disrupt the smooth running of a new government. Should Ruto's trial overlap with that of Kenyatta, who will run Kenya?
- What if Kenyatta and Ruto decide not to honour their dates with the ICC? The two, and the Kenyan government, have been critical of the ICC and supportive of Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who is avoiding an ICC arrest warrant.
BOOM TIME?
Kenya's shilling and stock market rallied after east Africa's economic powerhouse avoided a re-run of the bloodshed of five years ago. Its tourism industry could be a swift winner while investment plans that had been put on hold before the vote might now be realised.
But old problems still persist. The new government will need to tackle rampant corruption and stifling red tape, while the economy must grow faster to make a dent in grinding poverty and high unemployment.
What to watch for:
- What will be the make-up of Kenyatta's cabinet? His choices are likely to sail through a parliament in which his coalition won the most seats, but will he opt for executives from the private sector or favour established politicians?
- Kenyatta wants to expand the tourism sector and create jobs. The incoming president's family have interests in tourism, a key foreign exchange earner whose revenues fell in 2012 due to fears of insecurity, notably from Somali Islamists and their sympathisers along the coast. Could the forthcoming ICC trials set Kenya's image back again?
- Kenya is emerging as the centre of an oil and gas exploration boom in east Africa. How will Kenyatta manage this resource if it is found to be commercially viable?
- How would investment in Kenya's currency, debt and equities markets be affected if Kenyatta stopped cooperating with the ICC?
- How will Kenyatta, a former finance minister, tackle corruption, red tape and patchy-yet-expensive power supply, all hampering business? (Reporting by James Macharia; Editing by Richard Lough and Kevin Liffey)
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