KINSHASA, April 9 (Reuters) - Congolese President Joseph Kabila has achieved a degree of economic stability but armed uprisings still ravage the east of the vast mineral-rich country and security is worsening in the copper-rich heartland of Katanga in the south.
Here are some risk factors to watch:
POLITICS
Kabila - who came to power in 2001 following his father's assassination - has suffered multiple setbacks since his controversial 2011 election to a second term, a vote widely criticised as fraudulent.
The army's inability to stamp out the latest eastern rebellion has seriously weakened Kinshasa. But support from the United Nations and other international actors, coupled with a weak political opposition, mean Kabila's increasingly unpopular administration may yet weather the storm.
What to watch:
- How effective will a 2,500-strong task force of U.N. peacekeepers be?
- Will divisions in the ruling coalition threaten the position of technocrat Prime Minister Augustin Matata Ponyo?
SIMMERING CONFLICTS
Nearly a decade after the official end to Congo's wars, the central African giant is still crippled by several simmering conflicts. U.N. experts have accused both Rwanda and Uganda of backing the M23 rebels, charges the two governments deny.
The surrender of renegade Tutsi warlord Bosco Ntaganda last month provided a lift to the government. But ethnic divisions are fuelling clashes between rival militias and damaging relations in a region still recovering from a devastating war that sucked in at least 6 countries and left millions dead.
What to watch:
- Will M23 rebels return to arms as peace talks in Uganda splutter?
- Any resurgence of pro-separatist violence in Katanga.
THE ECONOMY
Despite fighting a war in the east and losing swathes of territory, Congo has achieved macro-economic stability, with growth last year of around 7 percent.
However, the fragile economy is heavily reliant on imports, the majority of the population live in abject poverty and the country's agricultural and manufacturing sectors remain in ruins after decades of corruption and conflict.
What to watch:
- Can the economy keep growing on the back of Katanga's copper production despite security fears?
- Can Congo re-establish a loan deal with the IMF?
INVESTMENT CLIMATE
Congo is the fifth worst place to do business out of 185 countries ranked by the World Bank.
A failure to fulfil promises to tackle the notoriously hostile business climate saps the government's credibility and will continue to discourage potential investors.
What to watch:
- Will Kabila finally take any steps towards tackling endemic corruption?
- Will a reform to the mining code expected this year damage investor confidence?
- Will a plan to get state miner Gecamines back on its feet succeed? (Reporting by Jonny Hogg; editing by Mark Heinrich)
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