The Resolve LRA Initiative says many rebels have grown disillusioned with Joseph Kony's failure to keep in contact with the increasingly fragmented group, which continues to pose a threat to civilians in large parts of central Africa
LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - The rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), led by fugitive warlord Joseph Kony, is likely to be weaker than it has been in at least 20 years with most fighters wanting to defect, a U.S.-based advocacy group said.
Kony, a self-styled mystic leader who at one time wanted to rule Uganda according to the biblical Ten Commandments, was chased out of northern Uganda by government forces in 2005.
Roaming first the lawless expanses of South Sudan, then the isolated northeastern tip of Democratic Republic of Congo, Kony is now thought to command just hundreds of followers scattered in jungle hideouts in Congo and Central African Republic (CAR).
According to The Resolve LRA Initiative, an organisation that works to end the atrocities carried out by the LRA and support affected communities, many rebels have grown disillusioned with Kony's failure to keep in contact with the increasingly fragmented group, which continues to pose a threat to civilians in large parts of central Africa.
“Morale among the Ugandan combatants that comprise the core of its force is at a new low," the report said. "The large majority of people in the LRA were forcibly conscripted, and most, including many Ugandans, want to defect."
The lack of a realistic strategy to accomplish the LRA's long-time goal of seizing power in Uganda, pressure from Ugandan military operations in CAR and Congo, and a shift towards acts of banditry such as ivory poaching had also contributed to a breakdown of discipline within rebel ranks, it said.
According to researchers, who interviewed former LRA rebels and abductees, about 15 percent of Kony's core Ugandan fighting force have defected since January 2012.
They estimate that as of May this year, the LRA have 250 combatants – 200 Ugandans and 50 low-ranking fighters abducted primarily from CAR, Congo, and South Sudan – and another 250 dependents, including abducted women.
As a result, Kony has attempted to tighten his grip on the LRA, ordering the execution of several senior LRA commanders in the past year, including those who refused orders to sleep with abducted women taken as Kony's "wives", the report said.
"He has ostracised others, particularly elderly fighters unable or unwilling to endure the gruelling life in the forests of eastern CAR," the report said, adding that Kony had transferred operational leadership to younger Ugandan fighters.
It concluded that the most timely and cost-effective approach to dismantling the LRA, which sprang to life in 1986, was to encourage increased defections.
"The coming months represent a critical window of opportunity to encourage as many defections as possible before Kony is able to reconsolidate control of the LRA, renew motivation in the ranks, and diminish opportunities to encourage defection," the report added.
However, it also outlined several deterrents to defecting.
Many fighters fear being punished if they are caught escaping. They are deterred by the long, dangerous journey through harsh terrain to get home, and the risk of being harmed or killed by local communities or military forces they might stumble across.
The report also cited the lack of support for returnees who face trauma, stigma and little means of making a living when they eventually arrive home.
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