WMO sees less chance of El Nino conditions forming this year than it did three months ago
GENEVA, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) now sees less chance of El Nino conditions forming this year than it did three months ago and expects only a weak El Nino event if it occurs at all, it said in a statement on Monday.
During El Nino events, surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become substantially warmer than normal, a phenomenon that is strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the world and can last for a year or more.
"Despite warming of the Tropical Pacific Ocean up until June, the overlaying atmosphere largely failed to respond. As a result, ocean temperature anomalies along the equator have decreased over the past two months," the WMO statement said.
"Changes in the wind patterns in early-August brought some weak re-warming, but winds have now returned to near normal in the western Pacific, while the pattern of cloudiness has remained largely neutral."
The downgraded WMO forecast follows a similar easing of expectations by several national weather agencies. The WMO, which aggregates data from climate models around the world and expert opinion, said Pacific Ocean surface temperatures may yet warm towards El Nino levels in the next few months.
Climate models now suggest 55-60 percent likelihood of El Nino conditions between September and November, rising as high as 70 percent for November-February. But a weak event appears most likely, the WMO said.
(Reporting by Tom Miles, editing by Stephanie Nebehay)
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