* Any views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters Foundation.
The good news, at least for most of us, is that large-scale war over water – contrary to some headlines – is very unlikely.
The bad news, for much of the world’s population, is that water shortages, driven by poor management, unfair sharing and an increasingly unpredictable climate, will be felt by those that can least afford it.
Long lines at water points, deteriorating water quality and growing numbers of users will lead to more local conflict and everyday brutality for the 748 million people – one in 10 – already without clean drinking water and millions more without a steadily available supply that is reliably safe to drink.
Research suggests 2.7 billion people – one-third of the world’s population – live in basins with severe water scarcity for at least one month a year.
Scarcity can be managed. Singapore, a tiny island with few water resources, keeps the taps running and the toilets flushing.
But Singapore is a rich country with vast resources and the latest technologies at its disposal. Singapore can desalinate and recycle to meet the needs of its small population.
The countries across Africa and Asia where WaterAid works have far fewer solutions at their disposal. And demand is growing fast. As water becomes scarcer, these countries will need to focus on the ways in which water is allocated, regulated and managed. They must answer difficult political questions about who gets which water, and when. Above all, water and sanitation are basic human rights. The drinking, cooking, washing and toilet needs of every individual must be met before other uses are considered.
Making this more urgent is climate change. It came as little surprise that 2014 has been officially declared the warmest year on record.
When people think of water and climate change, they picture small Pacific islands disappearing under rising seas.
However climate change manifests itself in water in many different ways: too much (in flooding and rising sea levels), too little (extreme drought), at the wrong time (as in unpredictable weather patterns) or of the wrong quality (too salty or polluted).
The burden of climate change is already being felt around the world. According to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, temperatures have already increased, rainfall patterns are changing and ice sheets are melting, altering freshwater systems across the world. Researchers expect that climate change will erode the quality of the world’s water, making clean drinking water an even more precious resource.
Climate predictions for the future are bleak. Take the region of South Asia, where today’s climate variability already threatens lives, food security, health and wellbeing. Floods linked to extreme rainfall events, rising sea levels and cyclones could cause widespread damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements.
Seas will continue to rise, affecting the quality of water in South Asia’s vast deltas that are already sinking as a result of groundwater extraction, floodplain engineering and trapping of sediments by dams. Rapid urbanisation raises the risk of contaminated floodwaters, causing exposure to disease and toxic compounds.
While climate change will touch the lives of all South Asians, the poor will feel it worst. Those living in areas that are already flood-prone, those that rely on unsafe water sources and those that have nowhere safe to go to the toilet are the most vulnerable and the least able to adapt.
WaterAid works in 26 of the world’s poorest countries on improving access to safe water and sanitation. We have seen up close the stress communities face when water points fail because they weren’t put in the right place, because water tables are falling or because there’s too much competition for a limited water supply. Climate change will worsen and accelerate these challenges.
WaterAid has announced plans to support 29 West African communities to help them better prepare for, mitigate against and recover from disasters including droughts, floods, famine and epidemics.
Bolstering water and sanitation infrastructure can help improve communities’ coping strategies for when disaster strikes – whether it’s Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia, cholera in Ghana, or increasingly long and intolerable dry seasons unbroken by monsoon rains.
In Burkina Faso, for instance, heavy reliance on a community’s single borehole for everything from watering livestock to washing clothes was relieved by adding smaller, shallower wells for general need, so that the water from the deep borehole could be saved for drinking.
Rainwater harvesting tanks for homes and schools are another way to conserve every drop of water in preparation for an increasingly lengthy dry season.
The challenges posed to water from climate change are enormous, but not insurmountable. WaterAid is demonstrating how we can work with and support communities in managing threats and building their resilience.
This year presents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to address the climate change threat, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in December. Those who are already living in extreme poverty – on less than $1.25 a day -- have contributed little to the existing carbon in the atmosphere.
We must ensure their difficult lives are not made worse by the inability to reach an agreement to cut carbon emissions, and to provide needed technical and financial support to adapt to a warmer and more volatile climate.
