* Any views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters Foundation.
Regardless of the result there is little good news for ethnic minorities in Myanmar
Stella Naw is a human rights activist focusing on peace and conflict in Myanmar, with a particular focus on ethnic groups in northern Myanmar.
“Our future is very uncertain”, Awng Ja, a youth in Myanmar’s northernmost Kachin State who has been displaced for nearly 9 years as a result of fighting in his hometown, told me recently.
“The political reform and peace process are moving backward not forward.”
For people like Awng Ja, the Nov 8 general election is yet another state vehicle to push the already vulnerable minority populations further to the brink. Regardless of the election result there is little good news for the ethnic minorities in Myanmar who have been marginalized and living with civil war for decades, especially the more than 100,000 living in 140 displaced camps in Kachin and Northern Shan States.
Firstly, the incumbent, the National League for Democracy (NLD), the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, is almost certain to win a majority of seats in Parliament and control the new government but it seems that little will change. The past five years under the NLD government did not bring any benefit to the displaced or improve their lives. The NLD government’s failure to advance the peace process – largely due to a failure to meaningfully reach out to leaders of ethnic communities and Ethnic Armed Organizations - had direct and undesirable consequences for internally displaced persons (IDPs). Without peace, they are unable to safely return to their homes. Aung San Suu Kyi also failed to condemn the Myanmar military’s abuses against innocent civilians from ethnic minorities, adding to this indignity.
Under the NLD, the IDPs’ access to humanitarian aid has become more difficult. Since May 2016, government orders have blocked humanitarian organisations from going to areas controlled by the Kachin Independent Organization (KIO) - one of the major ethnic armed organisations currently fighting the Myanmar military. As a result, many IDPs have been forced to become illegal migrant laborers in China, and some have fallen prey to human traffickers.
An entire generation of Kachin youth have spent their school years living in IDPs camps with limited education opportunities. Those who do graduate and plan to pursue secondary education in Myanmar’s universities face barriers because the central government education systems does not recognize the KIO education system despite using the same curriculum.
The election and winning parties, including the NLD, didn’t use the opportunity to fulfill fundamental rights including safety, food security and education for ethnic populations hardest hit by the war.
Secondly, during the election campaign there has been a systematic disenfranchisement of a large number of people from ethnic areas including people living in IDP camps. On 16 October 2020, the Union Election Commission - appointed by the NLD - excluded over 1.5 million people from casting their ballots in the election when they cancelled voting in 56 townships across Kachin, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine and Shan States. Although security concerns due to armed conflict was cited as a reason, many of the areas cancelled have not seen fighting in years.
This is a significant increase from the 2015 election, when the Election Commission cancelled voting in 34 townships across Kachin, Kayin, Mon and Shan States and Bago Region on similar grounds. Conservative estimates are that at least 50,000 IDPs have been disenfranchised in Kachin alone, not to mention Rakhine state where hundreds of thousands of Rohingya have been prevented from voting.
Thirdly, the current democratic setting in Myanmar will never provide adequate representation to ethnic minorities in its current form as long as it is based on a deeply centralised system.
Despite some improvement in choice of opposition parties representing ethnic minorities in Kachin and Shan states - many IDPs in these areas feel their voice will never be heard in the current political system in Myanmar, adding another layer to the existing institutional discrimination they already face.
Elections are currently held under a ‘winner-takes-all’ electoral system, and the main national-level parties seem to represent only the voice of the Bamar-Buddhist majority. Many IDPs feel they are being left out by the governing party who campaigned on inclusivity and a vision for federalism but has since turned to focus the majority’s interests. This political centralization at the expense of ethnic minorities could lead to more armed conflict rather than reconciliation and peace building.
If we are ever too see a peaceful and united Myanmar, there needs to be concrete political dialogue to create a Federal democratic system where decision making powers are devolved to the State-level and recognises the inherent rights of ethnic peoples.
