Russia, the world's fourth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, relies on oil and gas exports - and says it needs to balance going carbon-neutral with economic development
MOSCOW, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Russia will not become a zero-emissions economy by 2050 and if it aims at reaching this goal, it runs the risk of losing macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth, an economy ministry document showed on Wednesday.
Russia, the world's fourth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, relies heavily on oil and gas exports as it bids to adjust its economic structure amid a global drive to reduce carbon footprint.
In late 2020, President Vladimir Putin ordered the government to work towards a cut in greenhouse gas emissions but stressed that any action must be balanced with the need to ensure strong economic development.
The economy ministry said its latest strategy of economic development until 2050 has several scenarios, all of which envisage Russia's gross domestic product growth exceeding global economic growth.
"The global energy transition ... determines new challenges for exporters of hydrocarbon commodities, including the Russian Federation, related to a decline in demand for fossil fuels," the document said.
In the main scenario, Russia will utilise 1.5% of its GDP to cut net emissions of greenhouse gases but will not become a carbon-neutral country by 2050.
Under the "intensive" scenario, Russia will become a net-zero emissions economy by 2060 for which investments should reach 4% of GDP. This scenario requires higher foreign investment and no international restrictions on climate projects of Russian and foreign companies on the Russian territory.
"High expenses of this scenario contain risks for the sustainable growth of economic sectors and for preserving macroeconomic stability," the ministry said.
The "aggressive" scenario aims at making Russia a carbon-neutral state by 2050 but with even higher risks than under "intensive" scenario.
Climate change poses a serious challenge for Russia, whose economy relies heavily on oil and gas production, as well as mining. Some of that infrastructure is built on permafrost, which is vulnerable to rising temperatures.
Russia's strategy to cut emissions "remains relatively not ambitious" and the corporate sector is outpacing the state in terms of reducing carbon footprint, VTB Capital analysts said.
The Russian government is expected to review the economy ministry's strategy in the near future.
(Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya; additional reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya; Writing by Andrey Ostroukh; Editing by Katya Golubkova and Bernadette Baum)
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