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The rhetoric we hear in 2021 is consistent with the goal to keep global warming to 1.5C - but the pledges are not. The 1.5C target is now harder to reach than ever before
Sir Robert Watson is an Emeritus Professor in Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia and former chair of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
It was clear from COP26, that governments, NGOs and other stakeholders are remaining resolute in supporting the Paris target of 1.5 degree Celsius. But the pledges (the Nationally Determined Contributions) made at and before COP26 are clearly inadequate to even achieve 2C but place the world on a pathway to 2.5C to 3C by 2100 and possibly even higher.
There has been too much emphasis on net-zero target by mid- century and not enough attention to significant reductions between now and 2030.
To be on a pathway to 1.5C would require a 50% reduction in current emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050.
The current pledges, if fully implemented (which is highly questionable), would only slightly reduce current emissions by 2030 - not even enough to limit warming to 2C by 2100, which would require a 25% reduction in current emissions by 2030.
The rhetoric is consistent with 1.5C, but the pledges are not.
For example, China and India, have stated that their emissions will peak by 2030, not significantly decrease. Also, most - if not all pledges - are not supported by a monitorable action plan of policies, technologies, and financing.
For example, the UK climate change committee has openly stated that the UK pledge of a 78% reduction in emissions by 2035 is not supported or consistent with current policies and actions.
Since COP26, China and India, the largest and third largest emitters of carbon dioxide have both asked their coal mining companies to increase production of coal due to energy shortages, and President Biden has asked the US oil and gas companies to increase the production of oil and gas to reduce the current high prices - all actions inconsistent with the Paris agreement.
Therefore, in my opinion, the 1.5C target is now harder to reach than ever before, and I doubt we will even limit warming to 2C.
The need for politicians to provide cheap fossil fuel energy today outweighs the need to reduce emissions. 2021 can be summed up as the year of rhetoric not action.
Therefore, while we should aim to limit climate change to less than 2C, we should prepare to adapt to 3C.
If governments are sincere in their stated goal of achieving the Paris target, then they must bite the bullet in 2022 and significantly strengthen their pledges - reductions by 2030, not promises of net zero by mid-century, especially the large emitters, China, USA, India, Russia, Japan and the EU.
The public must realise they have a role to play in reducing energy use, reducing energy and food waste, accepting that energy prices may go up in the short-term, accepting they may have to live near wind and solar farms.
The business and finance sectors must also change radically and support the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The promised financing for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change must be increased as soon as possible if their conditional pledges are to be met.
But let’s recognise that addressing climate change is more than reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels.
We must reduce carbon dioxide emissions from land-use changes, especially deforestation. We must also reduce emissions of methane (from energy and agricultural sources), nitrous oxide (agricultural ounces) and fluorinated chemicals.
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