* Any views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters Foundation.
We have not done enough to tackle climate change and are already facing the consequences - but we can protect ourselves and the planet if we act now
Yet another report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)? Didn’t its previous reports already confirm we needed to act quickly to tackle global warming or things would get really bad? What is there to add?
A fair question. But in fact, there was a lot to add in this latest assessment, based on the newest science. Some of it is bad news, some of it provides hope. But the main message is one of urgency.
Let’s start with the bad news. In a way, this report does confirm the warnings from previous reports. We did not do enough, and we are already facing the consequences. Not in the future, but now. The rising risks are reflected in widespread impacts we already see around us today.
More and more of these losses and damages are directly attributed to human-induced climate change. They hit us everywhere, as we’ve seen with the bushfires in Australia, the floods in Europe, and the record heat in Canada, showing that we’re not ready for the changed climate even in the richest countries.
But the impacts are worst in the most vulnerable contexts. For the first time, the IPCC reports with high confidence that climate change is already contributing to humanitarian crises. In addition, climate and weather extremes are increasingly displacing people in every region of the world. This is of course our daily reality, working in the Red Cross Red Crescent movement.
In short, our previous reports were correct that bad things were coming our way unless we acted quickly. We did not, and we are already paying a price.
A second negative message is that it’s getting worse more quickly than we thought. All the major risks we were concerned about in the past are now approaching much faster. Not just because global warming has continued, but also because at the same level of warming, we now face much higher risks. That makes it even more urgent to act.
MANAGING BETTER
But then, on to the good news: we highlight how risks are not only determined by warming but also by vulnerability. There is thus a lot we can do to better manage what is coming our way. If we raise ambition to adapt to rising risks, with a special focus on the most vulnerable people, we can avoid many of those risks.
For instance, better early warning systems can help communities cope with increasing extreme events. Social protection can buffer against shocks. Better urban planning in rapidly expanding coastal cities can avoid a dramatic surge in threats. We’re not doing enough of those things yet. Adaptation is often delivered piecemeal in tiny projects, promised climate finance to support developing countries is still falling short, and we are failing to reach the most vulnerable people.
Those constraints can be overcome - and then we can dramatically reduce risks in the face of the changes we can no longer avoid. The report is very clear that there are also limits to adaptation; we're already facing some of those now and they'll be increasingly prominent as warming continues. This means we’ll face increasing “losses and damages” from climate change impacts, even if we implement effective adaptation. Some things will get lost forever, and more so as warming progresses.
Climate change is no longer a story about a potential future we can philosophise about. Our past choices already have an impact today. And today’s choices have irreversible impacts for our future.
After several years of intense work, assessing thousands of publications, working through tens of thousands of comments on earlier drafts of the report, and then two weeks of long days of intense negotiations to finalize the key “Summary for Policy Makers”, we have completed our work.
After the final gavel came down to conclude the negotiations, I read through the whole summary in one go and realized what we were saying. I knew the science, I had written the report, I had defended its conclusions. But the full picture still sent chills down my spine.
Is it worrying? Yes, deeply. Is it all doom? No. But one thing is very clear: we have no time to waste. Any further delay in global action on adaptation and slashing planet-heating emissions will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.
Maarten van Aalst is director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and professor of climate and disaster resilience at University of Twente. He is a coordinating lead author of the IPCC report “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”.
